CAVEAT: THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS MOSTLY AN EDUCATED GUESS.  AS EDUCATION/DATA CHANGES, SO WILL THE GUESS.  IF YOU HAVE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR HAVE FOUND A SHORTCOMING IN THE ANALYSIS, I WELCOME YOUR INPUT.

 

Greetings Ken,

 

TABLE FOR AUTOMATIC TRANSMISSION CARS

	999	EB5	EK2	EV2	EW1	FJ5	FY1	Totals
U CODE	23	111	113	130	139	80	186	782
V CODE	9	43	44	51	54	31	72	304
R CODE	1	7	6	8	8	5	11	46
Totals	33	161	163	189	201	116	269	1132

 

TABLE FOR MANUAL TRANSMISSION CARS

	999	EB5	EK2	EV2	EW1	FJ5	FY1	Totals
U CODE	11	54	55	63	68	39	90	380
V CODE	10	52	52	60	64	37	86	361
R CODE	2	6	7	7	9	4	12	47
Totals	23	112	114	130	141	80	188	788

  

The above are tables of the estimates I have so far.  As time goes on, more and more cars will appear but I think the basic percentages we come up with for the various options and combinations of options will hold up.  The manner in which I arrived at the above numbers is detailed below.  Don't be appalled if three pages into this you ask: where is the booze?   That is the normal reaction to most statistical analysis as it is a guess at reality rather than a confirmation.

 NEXT STEP: Do you have any pull with any of the other people who maintain lists of Superbirds?  I understand the hesitancy of people to share the data but if you know of anyone who would, please let me know. 

We may as well start with the engine.  The engine seems to be the single option of the most interest to people when they talk about muscle cars.  Thankfully, the Nascar Serial Number List exists to help us out.  It really is an amazing document to have at one's disposal.  As you know, it lists 1920 cars and the VIN code conveniently carries an engine designation code.  I have only seen one car miss-coded and that was on the fender tag not the VIN so we can make the reasonable assumption that the Nascar list is an accurate representation of the actual cars built.  One could make the case that the percentages we get from the Nascar list may not be accurate if cars were built that did not appear on the list.  Over the years the number of cars built has been reported to be anywhere between 1920 and 2000.  I think we can safely conclude, given the extensive investigation of VIN discrepancies in other documents disseminated earlier, that 1920 is almost exactly the number of street cars built.  As you know, cars framed or built for racing are another issue altogether.

 

The DSAC counting of the cars in the Nascar list by engine is as follows:

 

440-4               1162 cars         1162/1920       60.52%

440-6               665 cars           665/1920         34.64%

426 Hemi        93 cars             93/1920           4.84%

 

We get the percentages of each engine option by dividing the actual cars with each engine into the total cars.  The results are above.  I believe these results are more accurate than those extrapolated from the surviving cars.

 

The surviving cars that I have on file show up in the following numbers:

 

440-4               420 cars           55.48%

440-6               288 cars           38.05%

426 Hemi        49 cars             6.47%

  

We get the percentages of each engine option of the surviving cars by dividing the cars with each engine into the total number of cars that we have data for - in this case, 757 cars.  The results are above.  The strange numbers begin to show up when we try to find the total number of cars originally produced with a given option based upon the numbers that survive today.  As we discussed earlier, Hemi cars have a way of surviving no matter what condition they are in and, therefore, will show up in a disproportionately large number today compared to a lowly 440 4 barrel Superbird (humor intended here).

 

If we use the surviving cars as an indicator of what was originally produced, we get the following:

 

440-4   420 cars divided by 757 equals 55.48            % times 1920  equals  1065 cars

440-6   288 cars divided by 757 equals 38.05% times 1920   equals  731 cars

426 Hemi 49 cars divided by  757 equals 6.47% times 1920 equals  124 cars

 

If we compare these extrapolated numbers with the actual numbers known from the Nascar list we see some significant differences.  You and I both know that there is no way 31 Hemi Superbirds were built that were not on the Nascar list AND have never shown up anywhere in the world.  I also seriously doubt there are 60 V code cars built that never show up on the list.  And, we know from the list that there were more than 1065 U code cars built.

 

At this point, one can legitimately ask; "if we can't extrapolate forward with our surviving car numbers, what is the point"?  I think the numbers we will extrapolate will be reasonably representative of actual production percentages for options other than engines because those other options don't really have much to do with whether a car survived or not.  Did more automatics survive than manuals?  Probably a few due to the way people drive manuals more aggressively but I don't think transmission was a significant deciding factor in the survival of a car.  Would paint color make a difference?  Maybe a little.  Red and orange are very aggressive colors and it is possible that people ran cars of that color harder than the white cars but I don't think that would have a significant effect on survival rates.  How about seat style, interior color, wheel style or radio options?  I seriously doubt those differences had any effect of the survival of a car.

 

So with those caveats in mind, we can go forward with our estimation of the various options and combinations of options that we believe to have been installed on Superbirds originally.

When people speak of the rarity of a given car, they usually ask; "How many of this color with this engine and this transmission were built?"  To go much further is really splitting hairs.  If one really wanted to stretch things, each car is a one of one.  There were very few absolutely identical twin cars built unless they were fleet vehicles.  With three engine options, seven exterior color options, two transmission options, two interior color options, two seating options, four shifter/console options, five wheel options, three radio options, three tachometer/clock options, etc. etc. etc., one sees that the number of possible combinations soon exceeds the total number of cars built.  At some point, every car becomes a one of one.

 

To answer the color/engine/transmission questions, let's start with the relative rarity of each individual option and then get more complicated.

 

We already know the engine rarity so let's turn to exterior color.  To get these numbers, I sorted the data first according to engine and then exterior color.  A chart is actually the easiest way to display this data.

 Chart of engine and exterior color option combinations - based upon existing cars: 

	999	EB5	EK2	EV2	EW1	FJ5	FY1	Totals
U CODE	10	49	53	51	33	37	77	310
V CODE	6	37	30	45	66	23	61	268
R CODE	2	2	7	7	11	3	9	41
Totals	18	88	90	103	110	63	147	619

  

This chart is a breakout of the 619 cars that I have engine and exterior color data for.  I have seen almost every color of car painted almost every other color so I think we can discount any tendency to paint cars a given color skewing the data.  The only exception to this would be 999 or Petty Blue.  It seems that people really like this color and an inordinate number have painted and left their cars this color.  Petty blue composes the smallest percentage of cars.  Our numbers should be close to what was originally produced.

 

What I am looking for here are the totals at the bottom of each color column.  This number divided into the 619 total will give us what I believe to be an accurate percentage of each car painted that color.  I am ignoring the burnt orange mistake cars.

  Chart of engine and exterior color option combinations percentages - based upon existing cars:   

	999	EB5	EK2	EV2	EW1	FJ5	FY1	Totals
U CODE	1.6%	7.9%	8.6%	8.2%	5.3%	6%	12.4%	50.1%
V CODE	.97%	6%	4.8%	7.3%	10.7%	3.7%	9.9%	43.3%
R CODE	.32%	.32%	1.1%	1.1%	1.8%	.48%	1.45%	6.6%
Totals	2.9%	14.2%	14.5%	16.6%	17.8%	10.2%	23.7%	100%

 

The percentage at the bottom of the columns can now be multiplied times 1920 to get an estimate of total cars built in each color.

  Chart of engine and exterior color option combinations - extrapolation of data to estimate actual numbers produced:  

	999	EB5	EK2	EV2	EW1	FJ5	FY1	Totals
U CODE	1.6%	7.9%	8.6%	8.2%	5.3%	6%	12.4%	50.1%
V CODE	.97%	6%	4.8%	7.3%	10.7%	3.7%	9.9%	43.3%
R CODE	.32%	.32%	1.1%	1.1%	1.8%	.48%	1.45%	6.6%
Totals	56	273	278	319	342	196	456	1920

  

Note: the percentages in each square denoting a combination of engine and exterior color are subject to the same variances as in the first example due to the inclusion of the existing car engine data as a variable.  The totals in red, however, should be a fairly accurate representation of production totals.  I know this gets a little confusing.  There may be slight variations of each exterior color/engine combination, but the overall percentages of each color should be close.

  

If we really wanted to, we could go further and use the Nascar list percentages to reverse estimate the actual number of cars built with each engine and exterior color combination by multiplying the engine percentage times the estimated total exterior color production.  We would find that there was actually very little variance however.  For instance, the U code 999 would read 1.8%.  The V code 999 would read .99%.  And, the R code 999 would read .16%.  The greatest variance will be in the R codes because they have the highest deviation of surviving cars percentage from production percentage.  At this point, everyone's brain melts down…lol.  But here it is anyway.  We start by inputting the percentage/estimated total production numbers in the bottom line (Red).  Then we put the known production totals of each engine from the Nascar list (Green).  Then we multiply the green percentage times the red estimate to get…… the (Blue) estimated production of each engine and exterior color combination.

  

	999	EB5	EK2	EV2	EW1	FJ5	FY1	Totals
U CODE	34	165	168	193	207	119	276	60.52%
V CODE	19	95	96	111	118	68	158	34.64%
R CODE	3	13	13	15	17	9	22	4.84%
Totals	2.9%/56	14.2%/273	14.5%/278	16.6%/319	17.8%/342	10.2%/196	23.7%/456	100%/1920

 

The above chart, given the data we have now, is probably the best estimate of number of cars produced with each engine/exterior color combination.

 

Another common question asked concerns the engine and transmission combinations.

 Chart of engine and transmission option combinations - based upon existing cars: 

	Automatic trans	Manual trans	Totals
U CODE	246	120	366
V CODE	107	127	234
R CODE	20	20	40
Totals	373	267	640

  

The above chart shows the breakout of the various engine and transmission numbers.  The Hemi cars seem equally split.  The V code cars are surprisingly close and even more surprising is that there appear to be more manual transmission six packs than automatics!  It is the U code cars that are really surprising with about a two to one ratio of automatics to 4 speeds.  The overall percentages are about 41.7% manual transmission and 58.3% automatic. 

 Chart of engine and transmission option combinations percentages - based upon existing cars: 

	Automatic trans	Manual trans	Totals
U CODE	38.4%	18.8%	57.2%
V CODE	16.7%	19.8%	36.6%
R CODE	3.13%	3.13%	6.25%
Totals	58.28%	41.72%	100%

  Chart of engine and transmission combinations - extrapolation of existing car data to estimate actual numbers produced: 

	Automatic trans	Manual trans	Totals
U CODE	737	361	1098
V CODE	321	380	703
R CODE	60	60	120
Totals	1119	801	1920

 

Note: these figures are subject to the same variances as in the first example due to the inclusion of the surviving car's engine as a variable.  See the tendency for R and V codes to increase and U codes to decrease.

 

These numbers could be skewed slightly.  The ratio of automatics to manuals could be even higher.  What?!  Let's look at the percentages of surviving cars on file according to engine options.  Assuming that the 1920 production number is accurate, we have the following:

 

Engine             Nascar List                              Prod. %           Surviving         Surv %

440-4               1162 cars         1162/1920       60.52%            420                  36.14%

440-6               665 cars           665/1920         34.64%            288                  43.3%

426 Hemi        93 cars             93/1920           4.84%              49                    52.69%

 

If one considers that most of the destroyed cars are U codes and there is almost a two to one ratio of automatics to manuals in U codes, one can easily speculate that the actual percentage of automatics produced was higher.  More automatics than manuals would have been destroyed. 

 

Again, all of this is contingent upon the accuracy of our data and the idea that very few cars were converted one way or the other to a different transmission set-up.

Now let's go all the way with this.  Let's use the engine percentages that we know to be very accurate from the Nascar list and combine them with transmission percentages of known surviving cars.  If we use these numbers we can produce an overall percentage of automatics to manuals.  Here it goes:

 

	Automatic trans	Ratio Au/Ma	Manual trans	Totals
U CODE	772/40.21%	2.05/1	390/20.31%	1162/60.52%
V CODE	304/15.84%	.84/1	361/18.80%	665/34.64%
R CODE	47/2.42%	1/1	46/2.42%	93/4.84%
Totals	58.47%	1.41/1	41.53%	100%

 

After a little algebra we get the above chart.  The significantly higher percentage of U code automatics is slightly offset by the lower number of V code automatics.  The overall percentage remains about the same.  For easy reference one can say that three out of five Superbirds had automatics.  Personally I thought it would be closer to two out of three but until I have more data, or find an error in the existing math, "about 60% automatics" will have to be my answer.

  

OK.  So far we have the Nascar list to provide us with the total production number and the percentages for each engine option.  I believe these numbers to be very accurate.  We have the surviving cars data to provide the overall percentages of each transmission option and each color option.  I believe these numbers to be reasonably accurate.  With all of this we can fill in the blanks of two tables - one for automatic cars and one for manual cars.  This will finally give us a set of answers for the "How many cars were built with a given engine, transmission and exterior color?" question.

 

To get these answers, we take the total cars of a given engine and exterior color and divide it up according to the automatic/manual transmission ratio that we found earlier.  For example: the 999 U code total is 34.  The U code ratio is 2.05:1.  Therefore the number of U code automatics is 34 divided by (2.05+1) times 2.05 which equals 22.85 or 23 cars.  This leaves 11 manual transmission, U code, 999 cars.

  

TABLE FOR AUTOMATIC TRANSMISSION CARS

	999	EB5	EK2	EV2	EW1	FJ5	FY1	Totals
U CODE	23	111	113	130	139	80	186	782
V CODE	9	43	44	51	54	31	72	304
R CODE	1	7	6	8	8	5	11	46
Totals	33	161	163	189	201	116	269	1132

 

TABLE FOR MANUAL TRANSMISSION CARS

	999	EB5	EK2	EV2	EW1	FJ5	FY1	Totals
U CODE	11	54	55	63	68	39	90	380
V CODE	10	52	52	60	64	37	86	361
R CODE	2	6	7	7	9	4	12	47
Totals	23	112	114	130	141	80	188	788

 

All these numbers should be considered within plus or minus one car of accuracy given the data we have.  This is especially true of the R code cars given the very limited production.  I alternatively chose to put the "extra" car in auto or manual table in order to keep the numbers sensible (no 1/2 cars).